When Heirs Cry: A Lesson Learned From The Death Of A Pop Icon

In The News...

When pop-icon Prince died in April 2016, he left behind a lot of things, totaling an estate valued at a whopping $200 million.

Unfortunately though, there is one thing he failed to leave behind...

A Will.

Nothing resembling an estate plan. Prince passed away without, it seems, having taken any estate planning measures whatsoever. The fallout has resulted in a long, drawn out series of court appearances and rulings to determine who his rightful heirs are, what they get and by how much. According to an article in Rolling Stone, a staggering 45 different people came forward as potential heirs, trying to stake a claim to his riches. Last week, the court finally deemed his sister and five other half-siblings as the rightful heirs to his estate.

How did this happen? Most of us know we need a Will, but do you actually know why? It isn't just about saying who gets what, it is equally about ensuring certain people do not get things. A Will safeguards against instances like Prince's heirs have experienced, where long-lost "cousins" are coming out of the woodwork following his untimely death.

What is "probate"? When you die your estate goes through probate, which is the process of proving the intentions in your Will. Probate can take quite a while (in Prince's case, well over a year) because the public is given an opportunity to stake claims against your estate. Said differently, probate is a period that allows anyone to challenge your Will.

(NOTE: In community property states, such as Washington and California, probate for married couples does not really play out until the second spouse passes away. Community property is defined as anything you or your spouse acquired during marriage (with some exceptions). This usually ends up being most of what a married couple owns. Community property is jointly owned, 50-50, between both spouses. When one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse instantly becomes 100% owner of the community property. So for the purpose of explaining the true purpose of an estate plan in a community property state, assume we're talking about a widow or someone single.)

It gets worse: The wealthier you are the more problematic these post-death issues become without proper planning. Assets are frozen while probate plays out, and worse, if you are really wealthy your heirs may owe a hefty estate tax bill (federal and state). Due to the 40% federal estate tax rate, nearly half of Prince's $200 million fortune will go to Uncle Sam (~$100 million!). Oh, and because of court appeals, his heirs may not be able to access his wealth for another year, if not longer.

The estate tax laws change every few years. Right now, with minimal planning, estate taxes are avoided if your married estate is less than $10 million. But that threshold is debated every presidential cycle and it wasn't long ago that the exemption threshold was only $1,000,000 (which sounds like a lot, but not so much when you add up all assets, including real estate). Also, state estate taxes may still apply (in Washington, anything above $2 million is subject to estate taxes).

More on this, including my recommendations, below in the Q&A/Financial Planning section.

In The Market...

The S&P 500 gained +1.4% this past week. Let's look under the hood...

(data source: Yahoo Finance)

Stocks: The S&P 500 did it. It finished the week above 2,400 for the first time ever (2,416 to be exact). This is a bullish development, although it may be met with some choppiness in the days ahead. Nine of the 10 stock sectors were higher this past week, led by Utilities (a current holding of ours). Only Energy was down and is the lone negative sector year-to-date.

Bonds: A pretty inspiring week for bonds considering the stock rally. Conservative bonds (treasuries, investment-grade) were only down minimally, which is better than I would have anticipated considering the S&P 500 was up more than 1%. High-yield bonds were up nicely, following the lead of the stock market.

We purchased a Utilities fund (XLU) a few weeks back, anticipating a potential rally. We may have gotten that this past week, as Utilities were up +2.5%. The following chart shows this breakout, following weeks of calm. (For reference, the last "candle" on the right, where the arrow points, represents this past week.)

(chart created in stockcharts.com)

This is certainly no prediction that Utilities will continue to gain, but we like the odds.

In Our Opinion...

Someone asked me this week if Amazon, whose share price is currently $995, might split its stock sometime soon.

In this instance it was not a loaded question, but oftentimes when I get this question it is. When a company "splits" its stock, anyone who owns it sees the number of shares they own double following the split. A lot of people are inclined to believe that they now have more money because they have more shares.

False.

Yes, when a stock splits you double the number of shares you own. However, the share price is cut in half when it does. Effectively, you have the exact same value of stock that you had pre-split. For whatever reason, many people feel as though they become wealthier when their stock splits, when that is not the case.

Now, there is an argument that it helps the stock's future prospects because a split makes the per-share price more affordable for smaller investors to buy. In theory, this would increase demand, which would push the share price higher than if it had not split. There is some merit to this rationale but no real proof. Apple did a 7-for-1 split back in 2014 (7 times the shares received and price cut by one-seventh) and did that help its price moving forward? No one knows. The stock price sure was choppy for the following two years after that massive split.

Amazon may or may not choose to split its stock, but here is the thing to remember... If you have $1,000 and are interested in buying Amazon, purchasing one share for $1,000 is exactly the same thing as buying 5 shares for $200, 10 shares for $100 or 1,000 shares for $1. Do not let the absolute price alone dissuade you from buying a particular stock.

In Our Portfolios...

Stocks: No changes this week, but we are looking to add the Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ) or S&P 500 fund (IVV) next week. The specific fund will be determined by account size.

Bonds: Investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD) were bought for certain accounts. Next week we will look to add high-yield bonds (JNK) to certain accounts that do not own them. I also continue to eye long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) as a potential buy, but am awaiting the price movement I would like to see before doing so. Some of this bond-jockeying comes after having sold our preferred stock position over the past two weeks.

Q&A / Financial Planning...

Revisiting the above story about Prince's estate, here are my recommendations:

  1. Establish a Will. If you already have a Will, update it if life circumstances have dramatically changed.
  2. Consider adding a Living Trust as well. The concept of a Trust is often associated with the ultra-wealthy, but that word association is wrong. A Trust adds an extra layer of security and peace-of-mind to your estate because assets in your Trust bypass the probate process. This means your heirs can inherit your property (real estate, stocks/bonds, cash, etc.) quickly post-death than if those assets pass through your Will and become subject to probate. A Trust is also a private record, whereas your Will is public record. I, for one, value the privacy a Trust provides.

There are other life decisions that basic estate planning can solve too, namely guardianship for your minor children and health-care directives for making those tough decisions that occur as you age. If your wealth is substantial enough, certain Trusts can help reduce the estate tax burden your heirs become responsible for paying.

Let me know if you have questions. I am clearly not an attorney, so do not misconstrue this as legal advice. With that said, I can certainly refer you to a qualified attorney who can assist you.

What's New With Us...

Most client accounts have transitioned over to TD Ameritrade. As we wind down our firm's relationship with Scottrade, do not worry about the empty, zero-dollar balance in the account(s) you left behind. I will handle that in the near future and let you know if anything is required.

Have a great, LONG weekend!

Betz Signature 250px.png
 

Brian E Betz, CFP®
Principal

Nuclear Fear Has No Place Here, But The Market Is Starting To Shake

In The News...

The U.S. market has spent much of the year at cruising altitude. It may now be nearing some turbulence.

Last Monday I shared a chart of the S&P 500, showing how short-term market momentum was starting to fade. That continued into last week as the major stock indexes were down more than -1%. Stocks have stumbled out of the starting blocks in Q2, but nothing too dramatic as of yet. To a large extent this type of volatility is pretty normal and expected.

Nuclear Fear: This happens to be occurring as tensions rise between the U.S. and multiple nations -- Russia, North Korea, China. Threats of nuclear force are back, particularly as North Korea vows to conduct its 6th nuclear weapons test - the first of such during the Trump presidency. The U.S. appears to be back at odds with Russia over the Syrian conflict.

No one knows how these situations will play out, but this is a good reminder that news follows market prices. Meaning, market volatility usually shows its face prior to the newsworthy events that many use to explain the volatility. The point being, if you think a global event will influence the market it likely will do so before it happens, so investing in a reactionary manner is diminished. Also, the market has a way of surprising us, so even if you think stocks/bonds will respond a certain way you better be careful (two recent examples of this were Brexit and the U.S. Presidential election).

As a result, we are not in the business of predicting world events. We do not manage investment accounts according to what we think may happen and we certainly do not let the news dictate our approach.

In The Market...

The S&P 500 fell -1.1% last week. Let's look under the hood:

(data source: Yahoo Finance)

Stocks: A rough week for stocks, which I wrote we might see coming off the previous week. Frankly, if we don't see a quick bounce I believe the S&P could dip another ~3.0% or so before finding some cushion and rallying back. Last week's activity was classic "risk off" investor behavior, meaning investors sold riskier investments in favor of more stable or defensive ones. Seven of the 10 stock sectors were negative, with only REITs, Utilities and Consumer Staples finishing higher.

Bonds: Arguably the best week of 2017 for the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.24% -- the lowest interest rate for a 10-year Treasury bond in 5 months. Which reminds me...

Forget the Fed: I don't often go back and cite previous analysis, but this one is pretty glaring and important. Recall last month when the Federal Reserve decided to raise short-term interest rates on March 15th, I said that long-term interest rates may actually go down based on historical trends. Here is what I wrote at the time if you would like to see my reasoning.

Fast forward to now and let's see how the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has changed:

March 15th: 2.60%
April 14th: 2.24%

Long-term interest rates not only fell as I had suggested they may, but are the lowest they have been since the presidential election. This is yet another reminder -- backed by facts -- that the bond market and interest rate behavior is dictated by investor supply and demand, not individual Fed rate hikes or anything else. In this case, investors have chosen to buy bonds (for whatever reason) and that has pushed interest rates lower, which literally and ironically started the day after the Fed raised interest rates on March 15th.

For what it is worth: One of the things I do each day is scan the entire S&P 500 through a variety of statistical parameters. I do this to gauge the overall pulse of the U.S. stock market. If any of those 500 company stocks meet those parameters, they appear on my "buy list". This does not mean I actually buy them. It just puts them on my radar and helps me see which market sectors are leading vs. lagging.

I particularly do this on Friday, as I focus on where the market resides at the end of the week. Normally there will be anywhere from 70-130 stocks that show up in my scan. The greater the number, the more bullish the reading (and visa-versa). Last week, only 25 stocks appeared on my scan, which is just 5% of the S&P 500. That is very low and a bit concerning, but of course things could rebound quickly.

In Our Opinion...

Utility hitter: We added a Utilities sector fund (XLU) to most accounts this past week. I thought I would share a look at why by getting technical here for a moment. Below is a weekly chart of Utilities. Each "candlestick" represents a given week dating back to 2011. Weekly charts are the foundation for our analysis because they represent our preferred investment timeline, which is weeks/months rather than days (too short-term) or years (too long-term).

(chart created via stockcharts.com)

There is quite a bit to like about Utilities. First, the obvious price uptrend. The rising price pattern is consistent, which aids predictability. Second, momentum has remained strong as measured by Relative Strength (RSI), which is the chart above the price chart. We like to see RSI hold above 50 and ideally float within the 60-70 range. Finally, I shaded three previous points in time where I feel the historical price patterns resemble where this fund is at today. In all three of those instances Utilities stocks have rallied higher. That is what I'm anticipating and these are some of the reasons why we chose to purchase Utilities.

From time to time I like to share the analysis that goes into our buying/selling decisions. We have a well-defined process that relies solely on our own research and analysis. Hopefully you find this valuable.

In Our Portfolios...

Stocks: We bought a Utilities fund (XLU) across all client accounts. The allocation size of this new investment ranges from 13% to 35% of the total account, depending on your specific portfolio.

Bonds: No major changes last week.

Q&A / Financial Planning...

Check your bank statements: What I am about to explain is petty, but hear me out. When I sold my car last month the buyer paid me cash. After I deposited the money into our bank account I was charged $15 for doing so. Think about that... I was charged money for putting money into my own account that is set up for the sole purpose of holding money.

When I called to inquire, the bank rep said she could refund 75% of the charge, as that was the amount "the system would allow". Did I haggle over the remaining $4.00 or so that was not going to be refunded? You bet, purely out of principal.

I'm not sure which was more shady: The fact my bank charged me a fee in the first place, or, their B.S. refund protocol. I am sure thousands of consumers would never notice this type of charge, and of those who do, many of them would likely accept the partial refund and consider it a win. After very little arm-wringing and the rep's effort to "escalate the request and override the 75% default", I was refunded the $15 in full.

The bank probably assumes its customers will call, but they probably also assume that most consumers psychologically won't feel compelled to ask for the full refund if they can recover 75% of it. I couldn't have cared less about the $15 but the business procedure was so ridiculous that I had to call. I would encourage you to check your bank statements from time to time, especially as banks seem to be searching for new ways to generate revenue from their customers.

What's New With Us?

Individual tax returns are due this week (April 18th). Let Gale or myself know if you have any last-minute questions. Happy tax filing!

Have a great week everyone!

 

Brian E Betz, CFP®
Principal