Tax Forms And Social Security Reminders
/Hi everyone,
A quick note about tax forms. If you own a taxable/brokerage account, your 1099 is ready. While we can email you that form today, we prefer to wait just in case there are revisions to it between now and the final version being issued. That final version of your Form 1099 should be available this week. When it is, Josh will securely email it to you using password-protection. The password to open the email will be the last four digits of your Social Security number (or the primary account owner if it is a joint account).
Check your Social Security! Last week I received an email from the Social Security Administration, which I have shared below. You may receive a similar email. If your Social Security profile is already set up on the website, I suspect you too would receive this notification. If you have not set up your profile, visit the SSA website here.
We highly recommend establishing your account online, so that you can check your earnings history for accuracy. After all, the figures shown are what will determine your eventual Social Security benefits (if they have not started yet). You can also see your current, estimated monthly benefit.
Let us know if you have any questions about this, or strategies for claiming Social Security in general.
In The Market...
The S&P 500 was essentially flat last week, gaining +0.1%. Let's look under the hood:
(price data via stockcharts.com)
It was a pretty mixed week for stocks. The bond market made more noise, as Treasuries and Corporate Bonds both gained nicely on the week.
One of the bigger developments has been the number of stocks that have risen above their respective 200-day moving averages. Back when the market bottomed just before Christmas, only 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 200-day averages. Today, that figure has improved to 50%.
Here is a look at how this measure of “breadth” — the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages — has fluctuated over the past three months. The following chart shows the breadth for the S&P 500 and its individual sectors:
(data via stockcharts.com)
On the surface this is a positive development, as we like to see stock prices elevated above their longer-term moving averages. However, notice that the 50% ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole is right where stocks capped out in November coming off the October declines. What followed was a -10% market plunge in December. Will stocks lose steam again here? Tough to say.
One argument in favor of stocks continuing to rally is that the growth-oriented sectors, namely Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, look stronger today than they did in late-November. For instance, 60% of Tech stocks are above their 200-day averages, which is 20% more than there were back in late-November.
I have written about this many times before, but one of the reasons we track this kind of market breadth is because we want to see the components that make up the market rising together. When only a few sectors are rising it often is not sustainable. In addition, we want to be able to distinguish the stronger sectors from the weaker ones, which is something that this breadth measurement helps us do.
In Our Portfolios...
What's New With Us?
I cannot remember ever getting this much snow in the Seattle area. As of last night we had nearly 11 inches at our house. The bad news is that it makes it tough to get around. The good news is that we are able to work from home and conduct most of our regular business operations. Here is to hoping that the snow clears in a couple days.
Have a great week!
Brian E Betz, CFP®
Principal